Great Expectations of Spring Market – Will They Be Realised? - September Market Update 2025

Every spring, the property market is full of anticipation. Many commentators are suggesting that this year will bring a surge in listings and transactions, fuelled by recent interest-rate reductions, a chronic lack of new building, a more positive economic outlook, and pent-up buyer demand. 

But will these expectations be realised? What headwinds remain? And how can both homebuyers and sellers best prepare to take advantage of these changing conditions? 

Challenges Ahead 

1. Affordability

Despite the RBA cutting interest rates three times since the 13 consecutive rises over the past few years, affordability remains very stretched. Mortgage repayments still consume a large share of household incomes, and this acts as a constant handbrake on transaction volumes. In Sydney, with a median house price around $1.7 million, most families need two strong incomes just to afford a standard home. While lower interest rates improve borrowing power, the gap between incomes and prices is still wide. 

2. The Mexican Stand-Off

Spring often brings a stalemate. Vendors hesitate to list because they fear they won’t find their next home, while buyers wait anxiously for new stock to appear. This hesitation creates a circular problem: fewer homes listed means fewer opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Many vendors also underestimate how far prices have risen over the past decade, leading to “sticker shock” when they start searching. 

3. Listing Volumes

CoreLogic data (see chart below) shows listing volumes are almost 20% below the five-year average. This lack of supply is the central driver underpinning prices. Even if demand is tempered by affordability, the imbalance between supply and demand places upward pressure on values. 

(Source: Cotality 2025)

4. Auction Competition

Auction clearance rates have remained resilient, and history shows they tend to climb during spring as buyer numbers swell. With more bidders competing for fewer homes, expect stronger competition and higher clearance rates as the season progresses. 

Source: My Housing Market (August 2025)

How to Prepare for the Spring Property Season 

For Vendors 

Spring is traditionally the strongest time of year to sell. The warmer weather, longer days, and optimistic sentiment mean buyers are actively in the market.

• With listings at multi-year lows, vendors have a rare opportunity to stand out and attract genuine competition.

• The backdrop of interest-rate cuts is also significant. Lower borrowing costs typically translate into stronger demand and higher achieved prices.

• Overall positive consumer sentiment will lead to increased buyer numbers, great competition and hence better results for vendors.

For Buyers 

Competition will intensify this spring. Buyers need to be well-prepared:

• Have your finance pre-approved so you can act quickly when the right property appears.

• Be realistic about price expectations—waiting on the sidelines may mean missing out as values edge higher.

• Expect strong competition in both private treaty and auction settings. Over the next 12 months, not just this spring, the buyer pool will grow larger as confidence improves.

What to Expect in the Capitals This Spring

• Sydney – Supply remains extremely tight, particularly for quality family homes on the Lower North Shore, Eastern Suburbs and Northern Beaches. With interest rate cuts already boosting sentiment, expect auctions to be fiercely contested. Upgraders and downsizers are both active, pushing well-located houses and renovated apartments into higher price brackets.

• Melbourne – After a sluggish winter, momentum is shifting. The Bayside corridor (Brighton, Sandringham, Mentone) is tipped to jump as buyers priced out of the inner east look for relative affordability and lifestyle appeal. Investors are also circling the inner-north (Brunswick, Fitzroy, Northcote), where rental demand is outpacing supply. Stock will rise modestly, but demand should soak it up quickly.

• Brisbane – The city remains one of the strongest markets nationally, fuelled by interstate migration and relative affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne. Inner-city suburbs within 10km (Paddington, Wilston, Bulimba) are seeing intense competition from families and professionals. Investor interest is also strong in the southern growth corridors where rental yields remain attractive.

• Adelaide – Consistently one of the nation’s tightest and most competitive markets. Character homes in the inner ring (Norwood, Unley, Prospect) are drawing multiple offers well above guide, while middle-ring family suburbs like Glenunga and Henley Beach continue to see demand outstrip supply. With very few new listings expected, buyers should prepare for ongoing price pressure.

• Perth – The strongest-performing capital city market of the past two years shows no sign of slowing. Listings are at decade lows, and both local and interstate investors are chasing strong rental yields. Northern and eastern growth corridors (Ellenbrook, Baldivis, Byford) are highly competitive, while premium coastal areas such as Cottesloe and Scarborough are setting new benchmarks.

• Canberra – A tightly held market where government employment provides stability and confidence. The north and inner-south suburbs (Griffith, Yarralumla, Braddon) are attracting strong family and downsizer demand, while townhouses in Gungahlin and Belconnen remain popular with first-home buyers and investors. Limited new land releases are constraining supply, which will keep pressure on prices through spring.

• Hobart – After cooling in 2023, Hobart is quietly regaining traction. Affordability relative to the mainland and ongoing lifestyle migration are drawing buyers back. The inner suburbs (Battery Point, Sandy Bay, North Hobart) remain highly desirable, but extremely limited stock means competition will intensify even for smaller townhouses and units.

Bottom line: While the dynamics differ in each capital, the common thread is clear, scarce listings will keep competition intense and continue to drive prices higher this spring.

Key Takeaways

• Spring 2025 is shaping up as a litmus test for how deeply demand responds to lower interest rates. 

• Listing shortages will persist, keeping upward pressure on prices across capital cities. 

• Buyers who delay risk being priced out further, as competition intensifies. 

• Sellers who act now may benefit from a rare alignment of low stock, improving buyer sentiment, and fresh momentum in the property cycle. 

In short: a lack of listings this spring will drive prices higher and fuel competition. If you’re ready to make a move, whether buying or selling, this season may be your window of opportunity. 

Rich Harvey CEO & Founder | Propertybuyer

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