How Public Housing Shapes Australian Suburbs’ Property Value Growth

By Guest Blogger, Luke Metcalfe, Founder, Microburbs

Next Level Wealth 

When it comes to public housing, many property investors and home buyers are quick to jump to conclusions. “Avoid it,” some say. “It's bad for capital growth.” But is it really that simple?

To work this out, we didn’t just go with hearsay - we go deep into the data. We've conducted a comprehensive analysis of more than 57,000 property transactions across Australia, covering 13 years of sales between 2011 and 2024. Unlike most property analyses that rely on suburb-wide medians, we dive down to the microburb level - individual streets and pockets, giving a much clearer picture of how public housing truly affects Australian suburbs property value growth. 

What We Measured

For every property in our study, we looked at:

• The amount of public housing in Australia in the immediate microburb (local pocket).
• The public housing share in surrounding pockets (up to 1km radius).
• Changes in public housing between census periods (over 5 years).
• The actual resale returns - not just prices, but the real gains (or losses) investors made.

This is realised capital growth, not theoretical models or agent opinions.

Key Findings

1. Low Public Housing = Higher Growth

If public housing makes up less than 3% of a microburb (a pocket of 120 similar homes), the average annual capital growth is 10.9%. That’s strong, especially across a national dataset.

But when public housing crosses the 3% threshold, the growth drops to 9% per year.

2. Distance Matters A Lot

Zooming out:

• If no public housing exists within 1 km, the property gains an extra 4% capital growth annually.
• No public housing within neighbouring pockets? That’s +7%.
• Even within 100m, a public housing-free zone adds 2.7% more annual growth.

So yes - proximity does matter. A single public housing unit in a nearby street might not hurt, but being surrounded by public housing can have a measurable drag on your returns.

3. Change is Risky

You might think, “What if the public housing is being sold and the area is gentrifying?” Unfortunately, the data doesn't support that assumption - at least not within a 5-year window. In fact, areas where public housing decreased still saw lower capital growth than consistently low-public housing areas.

Even worse, increasing public housing led to 1% lower annual growth.

Should You Avoid Public Housing Areas Altogether?

Not necessarily. The data shows trends, not absolutes. Properties near or within public housing areas can still perform well—especially if other fundamentals are strong.

Public housing is one factor among many. But it’s clearly one worth understanding—not just fearing blindly.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Investors?

Whether you're a first-home buyer or a seasoned investor, the takeaway is clear:

• Do your due diligence: Look at microburb-level public housing data—not just the suburb.
• Check the trend: Are public housing rates increasing or decreasing over time?
• Don’t dismiss deals blindly: A great property in a high-public housing area might still outperform a mediocre one in a “good” suburb. At Microburbs, we make this analysis easy. Our tools reveal public housing percentages at the property, street, microburb, and suburb levels—plus a range of other growth and risk indicators. It’s the clarity you need to make confident property decisions.

Final Thoughts

Public housing isn't a no-go zone. It's a signal—one of many—that should inform, not override, your property decisions. When used alongside crime stats, school ratings, demographic trends, and capital growth forecasts, you can uncover pockets of opportunity others overlook.

By arming yourself with the right data, you can invest smarter—and sleep better at night.

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