By Rich Harvey, CEO & Founder, propertybuyer.com.au
If you’ve been watching the 2025 Australian property market trends, you’ll know a quiet shift is already reshaping some of Sydney’s more established suburbs.
We’re talking about downsizers. More specifically, about what happens when generations of older homeowners, many of them sitting on large family homes bought decades ago, finally start to make their move.
For years, this shift has been forecast. Now, thanks to recent planning changes and broader demographic trends, it’s finally gaining momentum. And for savvy buyers, it spells opportunity.
The demographic domino effect
In suburbs across Sydney, older residents are holding onto big blocks and large homes that no longer suit their lifestyle. But historically, many have been reluctant to sell.
Why? Because there simply haven’t been enough suitable downsizer options – especially ones close to their communities, family, doctors, and the amenities they rely on.
That’s starting to change. As these suburbs evolve, younger families are moving in, breathing new life into local streets, cafés, parks and schools. New businesses follow, and so does infrastructure.
We’ve seen this story unfold in parts of the Inner-West, but now it’s spreading to areas that were once considered “quiet achievers”.
These changes aren’t just aesthetic. They’re economic. As suburbs transition from retirement hubs to family-friendly hotspots, they become ripe for gentrification. And that, as always, has knock-on effects for property prices.
Planning reform just opened the floodgates
In New South Wales, the recent release of the Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy will be a gamechanger.
The new code allows for higher-density housing on properties located within 400 to 800 metres of town centres or train stations, making them prime targets for future development. The state’s goal is clear: increase supply, boost housing choice and make better use of existing infrastructure.
This shift will be particularly important for enabling downsizing. Because here’s the thing: once there are more high-quality apartments, terraces and townhouses in well-serviced areas, older homeowners will finally have attractive alternatives to their current homes. That frees up large sites that can be redeveloped or sold off at a premium.
And those sites? Many of them are right now sitting quietly in suburbs that don’t yet appear “hot” on the surface. But they will be.
The window of opportunity is now
For buyers, particularly those thinking long-term, this is the moment to consider properties within that magical 800-metre radius of a town centre. These properties are poised to become significantly more valuable over the next five to 10 years as dynamics shift.
It’s not just about immediate capital growth. It’s about owning land that will become increasingly scarce and increasingly desirable as zoning supports denser living.
Larger sites will attract developers, particularly as the market shifts toward providing more downsizer-friendly homes. If you’re holding the land now, you’re holding the ace cards later.
Consider somewhere like Frenchs Forest, which for decades was known more for its quiet streets than for dynamic development. But that’s changing fast.
The opening of the Northern Beaches Hospital created a new anchor for the suburb. It’s a significant piece of infrastructure that draws in both professionals and new services. On top of that, a new town centre is being developed next door, complete with more than 1000 new apartments, retail space and community infrastructure.
It’s a slow burn. Realistically, we’re looking at a five-year timeline for full delivery. But it’s coming and once it does, the suburb will look and feel entirely different.
The relocation of Forest High School to Allambie Heights clears even more space for development and accelerates the transformation.
Meanwhile, Forestville is experiencing similar pressures. There, the pace of downsizing has been slower, largely because older residents haven’t had viable housing alternatives that keep them in the area. But with new product on the way in nearby suburbs, and with Forestville itself being well within the zoning sweet spot, the dominoes are starting to line up.
Over time, more families will move in. Local businesses will follow suit. Think cafés, Pilates studios, dog groomers and childcare centres. The area becomes more vibrant, more liveable and more expensive.
Other areas to consider
· West Ryde
Positioned within 15 kilometres of the CBD and serviced by heavy rail, West Ryde is already a practical hub, but it has flown under the radar compared to more prominent neighbours like Eastwood or Meadowbank. With a mix of older homes on sizable blocks and strong transport links, it’s ripe for townhouse and apartment infill. The suburb has proximity to Top Ryde shopping centre, schools, and growing commercial nodes. Much of West Ryde falls within the 800 metre radius of the train station and town centre—making it a key beneficiary of the new planning code.
· Bexley North / Bardwell Park
These suburbs offer direct train access to the city, older housing stock on large parcels, and a close-knit community feel. Yet they remain undervalued relative to their position just 11 to 13 kilometres from the CBD. Younger families are already moving in, and as older residents begin to exit, the development of boutique apartments and duplexes will increase. The area falls neatly within targeted redevelopment zones, and the leafy village feel plus new housing options will attract both downsizers and new families.
· Carlingford
Previously car-dependent, Carlingford is being reshaped by the new Parramatta Light Rail and ongoing infrastructure upgrades. As part of the Central City District, this area will benefit from the government's strategic push to intensify housing around transport nodes. There’s a major opportunity for mid-rise redevelopment, especially around the new light rail stop and former Carlingford train station corridor. It also appeals to downsizers who want to remain near existing community networks.
What to look for as a buyer
If you’re a buyer thinking long term, now’s the time to look ahead and identify where the next wave of growth is likely to hit.
Here’s what I’d be watching:
- Proximity to town centres: Stick to properties within 400 to 800 metres of designated town centres or train stations. This is where the zoning uplift is most significant.
- Site size: Larger blocks will hold disproportionate value in the coming years as developers compete for land that can be subdivided or redeveloped.
- Local government alignment: Councils that are supportive of densification (or under pressure to deliver housing) will move faster. Follow the policy signals.
- Emerging infrastructure: Watch for schools and hospitals being built or expanded, and shopping precincts getting developed or upgraded. And watch for road and public transport improvements. These are signs of major investment and transformation.
It’s worth noting that this isn’t just a story about capital gains. These changing suburbs are also becoming more liveable. For young families priced out of the east and inner city, suburbs like Frenchs Forest, Forestville, parts of Ryde, Penshurst, and even areas of the Sutherland Shire offer more than just value. They offer community, schools, green space and lifestyle.
You’re not just buying property. You’re buying into the next chapter of Sydney’s growth story. And when you buy ahead of the curve, that’s where the real rewards are.
Sydney is growing, and its population is evolving. As the Baby Boomers age and finally consider downsizing, a significant portion of our city’s housing stock is set to change hands – and purpose. That presents a rare moment of transformation, not just for the property market, but for the nature of many suburbs themselves.
The new Low and Mid-Rise Housing Policy is a powerful catalyst. It will unlock density in areas that have long been underutilised, especially around town centres and transport hubs. And in doing so, it will allow older residents to move on, new families to move in and entire neighbourhoods to flourish.
For buyers, especially those willing to think a few years ahead, this is golden ground. The time to act isn’t when the cranes go up – it’s now, while things are still quiet and prices still reflect the “old” version of the suburb. Because as we know all too well in Sydney, once the transformation is in full swing, the opportunity is probably already gone.
If you’re eager to take advantage of what’s unfolding, reach out to our experienced and highly skilled buyers agent Sydney team. We have local-area experts who can help you identify and secure the properties set to make exceptional gains as the downsizing shift gains momentum.
The right strategy now could position you ahead of the curve in the evolving 2025 Australian property market trends. Contact Propertybuyer today.
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