Autumn Market Snapshot and Outlook - March Market Update 2025

The first rate cut of 0.25% in February has renewed confidence in the property market and with potentially two more cuts later in the year, the next growth cycle has begun! This month I take a quick look at how the year has started around the country and ask my local team for their local perspectives on how the next 9 months will roll out until we reach summer again.

The Australian property market continues to show a dynamic landscape with varying trends across different states and regions. Buyer sentiment is shifting, auction activity is fluctuating, and stock levels remain a key factor in pricing trends.

Since the beginning of 2025, Melbourne's beachside suburbs have experienced a notable increase in both open home attendance and auction bidding activity. The mood in Melbourne’s real estate market remains positive, with increasing buyer activity and strong auction results in early 2025. First-home buyers are particularly active, securing properties at competitive auctions. One notable example was a three-bedroom house in Frankston that sold for $945,000, exceeding the reserve by $65,000.

While Melbourne’s property values have increased 8.4% since the onset of COVID-19, they are still 6.4% below the March 2022 peak. However, market forecasts for 2025 suggest moderate price growth, with house prices expected to rise by 3.5% and units by 4.7% (which is a very conservative estimate in my view).

Despite reports of an overall 3.39% decline in values over the past year, there are pockets of resilience. Premium suburbs like Bentleigh, Brighton, and Sandringham are holding their value well, with ongoing buyer interest. Meanwhile, Frankston, Seaford, and Port Phillip Bay are experiencing increased competition, particularly among first-home buyers.

As interest rates stabilise and economic conditions improve, we may see more buyers entering the market, particularly in the middle and high-end sectors. This could lead to increased competition for properties in well-established or highly desirable areas like those along the coast or near Melbourne's inner suburbs.

Stock levels remain moderate, with advertised listings 6% above the five-year average. The outlook remains positive, particularly for well-located homes. Price stabilisation is expected, with a potential 3-6% increase in Melbourne values throughout 2025.

The overall sentiment in Adelaide’s property market is cautious but stable. Confidence is holding steady, but economic conditions and borrowing costs are prompting some buyers to take a more measured approach. That said, quality properties continue to attract strong interest, particularly in sought-after suburbs.

Property prices in Adelaide have remained steady since the beginning of the year. There hasn’t been significant upward or downward movement, indicating a balanced market. While some areas are seeing minor fluctuations, overall Adelaide continues to be a resilient and steady performer, particularly compared to more volatile capital cities.

So far in 2025, open home attendance and auction bidding numbers are slightly lower than last year. While buyer interest remains present, there has been a noticeable dip in auction activity, particularly in the sub-$800k price bracket. More properties are now being sold via Expressions of Interest (EOI) rather than auction, suggesting that vendors are adjusting their selling strategies in response to current market conditions.

Stock levels in Adelaide appear to be adequate, with a balanced level of properties available. However, auction numbers are down, reinforcing the trend of buyers and sellers favouring private sales over auctions. This indicates a market that is neither flooded with listings nor experiencing a severe shortage—properties are available, but buyers are being selective.

Adelaide remains a safe, stable market, making it an attractive option for both homeowners and investors. Given its affordability compared to larger capital cities, it continues to draw buyers looking for long-term security. If interest rates begin to ease later in the year, we could see an uptick in buyer confidence and market activity. Investors, in particular, may return in greater numbers, seeking solid rental yields in key growth suburbs.

The mood in Western Sydney is optimistic, with renewed confidence among buyers following the recent interest rate cut. Many buyers who were previously on the sidelines are now re-entering the market, and there is a clear sense of momentum building. Investors are also returning, particularly in areas benefiting from major infrastructure projects.

Property prices in Western Sydney are rising, with some areas experiencing double-digit growth. In suburbs like Emerton, prices have surged by an amazing 20% in 2024, while other locations are seeing moderate but steady price increases. This increase is being driven by low stock levels, high demand, and improving buyer sentiment.

There has been a significant increase in buyer activity at open homes since the start of 2025. February has seen stronger turnouts, with more buyers actively inspecting properties and making offers. However, auctions remain less popular in the west, as many buyers still prefer private treaty sales due to trust concerns. Some agents report that auctions are frequently withdrawn due to low attendance, reinforcing the preference for private negotiations.

Stock levels are significantly lower than last year, with only half the volume of listings available compared to early 2024. While more sellers are beginning to test the market, supply is still tight, particularly for well-located and affordable properties. As vendors gain confidence, we expect more listings to emerge throughout the year, but demand is likely to continue outpacing supply.

Western Sydney is one of Australia’s fastest-growing regions, with major infrastructure projects such as the Western Sydney Airport, metro rail expansions, and commercial developments driving long-term demand. The rebuilding of Penrith Stadium and the upcoming $300m indoor ski resort in Jamisontown are set to boost the area's appeal even further.

The Central Coast market is seeing diverging trends. Properties under $1 million are experiencing strong demand, while the higher-end market (above $2M) remains softer with extended sales periods.

While stock levels remain low, demand for well-presented, renovated homes continues to grow. Many vendors appear to be holding off for spring, likely anticipating another interest rate cut that could boost buyer demand.

The volume of buyers at open homes on the Central Coast is fickle as it depends on the quality and location of the property. Well-presented/renovated properties have active open homes with plenty of buyers around.

Off-market opportunities will be key in 2025, as buyer competition intensifies in desirable lifestyle locations. The outlook remains positive for investors and homeowners looking for long-term capital growth.

Sentiment is strong and currently very positive. We did see a slow start to January; however, this has absolutely improved over the last 6 weeks, and we have been inundated by new buyer enquiries which I believe is as a result of a definite improvement in sentiment as well as low stock levels of quality properties in the Eastern suburbs.

Properties in prime locations and well-renovated homes are selling quickly, often pre-auction. Meanwhile, properties in secondary locations or unrenovated homes are taking longer to sell and selling closer to their price guides. As an example, we went to auction last night for 6 properties; 3 sold (good location and renovated) and 3 passed in (unrenovated).

Demand for houses is stronger in the East with lower stock level of quality homes in good locations. The apartment market is not as hot for “cookie cutter” stock – prestige apartment demand is a stronger segment, especially from down sizers in the east.

We are seeing strong attendances at opens from mid-January. There are typically 1-3 strong bidders at each auction and attendances at opens are strong, however the number of “real buyers” at auction is lower at this stage.

The start of 2025 saw many properties come back to market which were released to market Oct – Dec last year but failed to sell. The market definitely slowed down in the last quarter of 2024, with many of these rehashed listings trading below what the agents were expecting late 2024. We have also recently seen examples of some rehashed listings selling well below vendor expectations. The newer listings which have come to market this year – those in good locations and in good condition, have had strong interest and been selling well.

Stock levels remain low, particularly for quality homes in premium locations. The outlook for 2025 is bullish, with demand expected to remain strong and drive price growth. Buyers with pre-approved finance are encouraged to act now, as competition is likely to intensify later in the year.

The Northern Beaches and North Shore markets have certainly settled since last year, with mixed results in recent weeks. The market has steadied, with medium buyer numbers and most vendors conditioned and willing to meet the market. However, we are still seeing some excellent results for vendors, in the A-grade listings or where properties have a unique offering. Buyers are still cautious and waiting for more stock, although the volume of stock available is actually quite reasonable.

The last quarter of 2024 saw buyer numbers decline, almost to a point that in late November/December, it was a buyer’s market. However, February has seen an increase in buyers, but not at the level we would have expected. This said, interest rate cuts and the anticipation of more will increase consumer confidence, and I expect to see some increase in market activity shortly. If this leads to increased vendor-confidence, then we should experience a more balanced market, with the usual steady growth which we have witnessed in the pre-Covid days.

I would describe the mood/sentiment in the Inner West as generally buoyant. The key main buyer groups active in this region are the baby boomers, first home buyers & investors.

The higher borrowing costs have reduced purchasing power for some buyers, however the appeal of the Inner West continues, driven by ongoing gentrification, infrastructure upgrades such as the Sydney Metro extension (due to open later this year), its appeal as a lifestyle hub and current strong rentals for the investor buyers.

Well-located properties with housing appeal continue to achieve good prices and this is exemplified by higher number of attendees at open homes and /or in auction bidding numbers as strong as last year. However, I’ve seen an increase in the number of less desirable properties passing in/withdrawn or remaining on the market for a longer period.

Stock levels appear slightly higher than last year and with the recent interest rate cut and anticipated further cuts later in 2025 could improve affordability and boost demand. The Inner West offers an affordable entry point families seeking larger homes on bigger blocks (or with renovation potential) within schools, parks and transport hubs. And the movement of the baby boomer/down-sizer buyers to the Inner West continues to grow.

Sentiment in most suburbs and regions are still bullish, with fundamental undersupply and critically low vacancy rates across all markets in Brisbane and the Gold Coast areas keeping that pressure on.

With the exception of some areas and suburbs which have potentially 'overperformed' and had 25 percent plus growth in the last 12 months, it will be another good year for south-east Queensland.

The 'overperformers' moved into higher pricing brackets comparable to surrounding areas, and whilst they still have interest, buyers in these areas are less than the volume of buyers during 2024. 

There are still continued strong numbers at inspections and multiple bidders at most auctions with a strong clearance rate.

The vast majority of suburbs in Brisbane and the Gold Coast are set for growth in 2025, with around 27 percent of suburbs predicted to achieve above trend growth, and 15 percent expected to achieve below trend growth based on previous 'overperformance'. 

Property prices are rising across the bulk of suburbs, with as above, some areas settling primarily because of strong prior performance, or their value pushing past where buyers see it as being attractive. 

We are not seeing any dramatic increase in buyer numbers, but some areas are just as strong as 2024, with some are having less buyer volumes due to them moving into new price brackets. The 750k to $1.6m range is very strong, where most purchasers can afford and has continued strong volumes of demand. Over $1.6m to $2.5m, the market is just as active as 2024 in some suburbs, particularly those in the inner east, but less active in other suburbs, such as those in the inner north. 

The low volume of stock is what continually underpins Brisbane's performance. The lack of supply within the market keeps the supply-demand imbalance and keeps pressure on the housing market to grow in these 2 regions. This is for various reasons.

South-East Queensland has the luxury that Demand can drop from peak levels - and there is still enough demand to compete for the critically low supply of properties in most areas.

Even if buyer numbers reduce, there is still a surplus of buyers competing for properties and driving new pricing benchmarks continually forward.

The only way Brisbane can stop its growth, with supply so low and demand for property being so consistent, is if supply magically starts to increase. 

With continued migration keeping a pressure valve on, we would need to see sharp interest rate rises or a tanking economy, or high unemployment for this to potentially play out and for supply to start rising to balance out the market. This is not the current reality and may not be for the foreseeable future. 

My outlook for the rest of the year is that most of these suburbs and the product types within them will grow. Units may outperform detached housing in both these markets in 2025, however by mid-2026 and beyond there is concern about supply of dwellings being added and unit growth will slow. Both Brisbane and the Gold Coast apartment markets are very cyclical by nature.

Houses will be consistent and a very safe bet in these regions, with 27 percent of suburbs set to outperform the overall average, and 15 percent of areas to settle in their growth, due to extreme prior growth in a short window. 

The mood of the market in Newcastle is positive and upbeat, but also cautious with buyers being pickier and taking more time. Anything overpriced sits on the market until the vendors become realistic as there has been good choice in stock available.

Investors are excited about this prospect, and I expect many of the 'fence sitters' to start jumping into the market from the 3rd & 4th quarter of this year with the majority jumping in during 2026. This means the smart buyers have a better opportunity to enter the market within the next 6 months, before competition from buyers increases and this naturally pushes prices upwards with higher numbers expected at OFI's and auctions.

Prices have been steady and have increased between 4% and 5% over the past 12 months in most suburbs. Houses at the higher end and strata property at the lower end. I predict this to be similar for the rest of this year, unless interest rates drop quicker than expected and I predict prices to increase to 5%pa for units & 6%pa for houses during 2026 to 2029, roughly around 15% over that 3-year period for units and 18% for that period for houses.

Numbers at open houses have been steady, and in some cases subdued, similar to the last quarter of last year. Yet, numbers are still good at quality properties in desirable locations, but less numbers in less desirable locations. So, buyers are pickier in this market and taking their time. However, the pick of the crop properties are still turning over in an average of 4 weeks of marketing & non-desirable or overpriced properties are sitting on the market for longer periods, some for up to 3 - 4 months.

Volume of stock has been favourable in Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, Central Coast, Hunter Valley & Port Stephens regions, primarily due to the higher interest rate cycle and I expect stock on market to continue to be reasonable throughout 2025 and slow during 2026, when we start seeing more interest rate reductions.

If you're considering buying this year, acting early may be the best move before competition heats up. Contact us at Propertybuyer to discuss how we can help you secure the right property in this evolving market. We’d be delighted to help you with your next property goal.

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